Macquarie expects global economic growth to improve modestly through 2026.

In the United States, Macquarie’s economics team forecasts economic growth to increase from approximately 2.0% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026. However, this recovery is expected to look different from traditional economic rebounds.

Rather than being driven primarily by substantial reductions in interest rates, improving productivity is expected to play an important role. Businesses continue to restructure, control costs and increasingly adopt artificial intelligence, potentially allowing companies to increase output without a corresponding increase in employment.

Macquarie therefore expects economic output and income data may perform more strongly than employment figures suggest.

Artificial intelligence remains a major opportunity — and risk

Artificial intelligence remains one of the most important themes influencing the global economy and financial markets.

Macquarie believes increasing AI adoption could generate meaningful productivity improvements for businesses, supporting corporate profitability and economic growth.

However, expectations surrounding AI are already extremely high.

A significant amount of future growth has arguably been reflected in the valuations of major technology companies. If AI-related investments fail to produce the earnings growth investors currently expect, Macquarie warns this could create volatility across global markets.

This is particularly significant given the concentration of the US share market among a relatively small number of major technology companies.

While substantial progress has been made in bringing inflation down from its recent highs, Macquarie believes inflation remains an important risk.

Central banks around the world appear more comfortable with current inflation levels, but inflation in many economies remains around or above the upper end of central bank targets.

This makes significant further reductions in interest rates less certain.

For Australia specifically, Macquarie believes the Reserve Bank of Australia has likely finished its easing cycle, with inflation risks remaining on the upside.

This is an important consideration for Australian borrowers. Rather than assuming interest rates will continually move lower, households and businesses may need to prepare for an environment where borrowing costs remain relatively elevated for longer.

Macquarie remains broadly optimistic about risk assets in 2026 but expects the path forward to be more volatile than it was during 2025.

US equities remain a particular area of attention. Strong earnings expectations and high valuations mean investors have relatively little room for disappointment.

Macquarie consequently sees opportunities for greater diversification outside the United States and Australia, including Europe, Japan and emerging markets, where valuations may be more attractive.

Macquarie also sees opportunities across fixed income, private credit, alternative investments and real assets.

Commercial property is another area showing signs of improvement, with Macquarie believing the commercial real estate cycle has turned positive. Infrastructure also remains supported by longer-term structural trends including digitalisation, energy transition and changing global supply chains.

For borrowers, perhaps the most important message from Macquarie’s outlook is that the interest-rate environment may remain uncertain.

The rapid movements in rates experienced over recent years demonstrate why lending decisions should be made with a longer-term perspective rather than based solely on predictions about the next RBA decision.

Borrowers should consider whether their lending structure remains appropriate for their circumstances, whether their loans remain competitive and how their position may respond if economic conditions or interest rates change.

For property investors and business owners, the broader economic environment may also create both opportunities and challenges. Access to credit, borrowing capacity, cash flow and loan structure can become increasingly important when economic conditions are changing.

Macquarie’s overall outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic. Global economic growth is expected to improve, AI could continue to support productivity and corporate earnings, and financial markets may continue to receive support from monetary and government policy.

At the same time, persistent inflation, elevated asset valuations, geopolitical uncertainty and questions surrounding the sustainability of the AI investment boom mean the year is unlikely to be without volatility.

For Australian borrowers, the key takeaway is the importance of remaining adaptable. Economic forecasts will inevitably change, but maintaining an appropriate lending structure and regularly reviewing your position can help ensure your finance continues to support your longer-term objectives.

This article provides a summary of selected themes from Macquarie Wealth Management’s 2026 Investment and Economic Outlook and is intended for general educational purposes. For Macquarie’s complete analysis, forecasts and investment views, you can read the full 2026 Investment and Economic Outlook on Macquarie’s website.